The uneven regional impacts of tariffs
Against the backdrop of a downgraded Spring Forecast and a forever precarious global economic environment, Donald Trump’s imposition of a 10% tariff on all UK imports to the US hasn’t exactly landed at an ideal moment for the UK economy. Keir Starmer’s government is rolling out a reactionary support package to ‘help shelter vulnerable sectors’ […]
Supporting the UK’s creative edge through infrastructure
The creative industries are one of the UK’s greatest economic and cultural assets. They add over £50 billion a year to London’s economy alone, account for one in five jobs in the capital, and continue to drive innovation, exports, and inclusive growth. That’s why last week’s announcement by the Mayor of London, committing over £10 […]
Why economic benefits matter in planning decisions
Under the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) – the government’s primary planning policy – there is a requirement (found in paragraph 85, formerly 81) that “significant weight should be placed on the need to support economic growth and productivity.” One recent ruling illustrates how this plays out in decision-making. A closer look at the Bewley […]
Vision and validate – but for employment need?
Recent changes to the NPPF have introduced a fresh approach in transport planning – one known as “vision and validate.” Instead of relying solely on forecasts based on past data, this method requires decision makers to articulate a clear vision for the future and then actively test, monitor, and adjust their forecasts as conditions evolve. […]
Bets, hedges, affordable loss and economic appraisal
In a week where the government has cut huge swathes of HS2, economic appraisal is in the spotlight again. Cost benefit analysis is the widespread tool used to assess the economic impact of public investment projects across government. It compares the benefits of a decision to its costs to understand whether it provides value for […]
An uncertain past
A significant part of our work at Volterra involves dealing with an uncertain future. Questions such as how many jobs a development will create, what strategy should an area adopt given we cannot predict how the economy will evolve, or how a new rail link will impact land use patterns around stations all require some […]
The post-pandemic workplace and office employment densities in central London
Historically, office employment densities in London have been consistently increasing as more workers have been fit into smaller spaces. It is likely that average office employment densities for prime urban areas reached as high as one full-time equivalent job per 10sqm of office space before the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic (hereafter ‘the pandemic’). Ostensibly […]
How did employment change during the COVID-19 pandemic? Insight from the recent ONS BRES survey
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the nation’s most highly anticipated provisional estimates for employment in October, the Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES). With 85,000 businesses surveyed in Great Britain and a response rate of 69.5%, BRES is regarded as the go to source for employment statistics. This latest release provides us with […]
Transport Practitioners Meeting paper
Andy McNaught and Adam Sands had their paper “Valuing Travel Time Savings in the Context of Achieving Net Zero” accepted to the Transport Practitioners Meeting (TPM). They presented at TPM on Thursday 30th June. This article acts a general introduction to the topic area. * One of the purported main aims of many transport projects […]
Forecasting Unemployment in London
An early end to furlough could spell trouble for London residents. According to the UK Government’s latest announcement, the end is now in sight. With restrictions expected to be fully lifted by the 21st June, the economic recovery will be in full flow. Many people, including the Bank of England, are forecasting a short, sharp […]
