Recent changes to the NPPF have introduced a fresh approach in transport planning – one known as “vision and validate.” Instead of relying solely on forecasts based on past data, this method requires decision makers to articulate a clear vision for the future and then actively test, monitor, and adjust their forecasts as conditions evolve. This shift got me thinking about the lessons we might learn for planning employment needs.
Problems with how employment need is assessed
Hidden within lengthy evidence bases for local plans are documents outlining the employment need for an area, based on forecasts of employment growth. These figures, often buried in technical documents, play a crucial role in shaping policy by informing decisions on where development should be located and whether projects should go ahead. Yet, too often these numbers are based on past trends, treated as fixed indicators of future needs without sufficient consideration of how we actually want growth in an area to look.
This “predict and provide” approach has long dominated employment planning. There are various methods of forecasting need – and I do not wish to imply that they are all inherently flawed, as there are examples of good practice out there – but many rely too heavily on an analysis of historical data. Once produced, these forecasts are treated as gospel by local authorities and stakeholders, offering a straightforward, data-driven way to justify land release and development proposals. However, such an approach assumes that the future will unfold much like the past, leaving little room for the dynamic shifts that occur in our economy.
The challenge is that by relying on past data, we implicitly assume that tomorrow will mirror yesterday. While historical trends provide valuable context, they cannot capture new technological developments, changes in economic policy, or evolving workforce needs. As a result, critical decisions are made on forecasts that may not reflect tomorrow’s realities.
What we can learn from transport planning
There have been significant changes in transport planning over recent years. The sector has shifted away from the “predict and provide” approach – which, in transport, baked in assumptions favoring car-dominated modes at the expense of more sustainable, active models – to one of “vision and validate.” Under this new method, decision makers first establish a clear vision – a desired future state – and then use mechanisms such as scenario testing, ongoing monitoring, and regular review to validate and adjust their forecasts as conditions evolve. This proactive strategy, recently incorporated into the NPPF, requires local authorities to develop a flexible approach that can adapt to emerging trends rather than simply extending historical patterns.
While historical data will always have its place in understanding an area, we must balance it with more forward-looking insights. There are lessons we can take from transport planning to ensure that we take positive, adaptive action about the scale, size, and spatial mix of development. Ultimately, if we are to meet the needs of a dynamic economy, our forecasting methods must evolve beyond the assumption that the future is simply a repeat of the past.
