In low income parts of the UK, boosting productivity is a question of competition
Productivity is a puzzle with many different layers. When it becomes a mainstay in political speeches, it is rarely for a good reason. Most of the recent focus is on why it has been so slow, in the overall economy, for the last decade or so. In the 1990s, productivity in G7 countries rose at […]
Politicians and voters must learn that every policy has a cost and an impact on growth
The runners and riders battling for leadership of the Conservative Party are setting out their stalls. Tax, lockdown, defence and Brexit are all key issues which have been raised. On some of these, at least, there are marked differences between the candidates. But there is an elephant in the room: how to raise the underlying […]
Forecasting Unemployment in London
An early end to furlough could spell trouble for London residents. According to the UK Government’s latest announcement, the end is now in sight. With restrictions expected to be fully lifted by the 21st June, the economic recovery will be in full flow. Many people, including the Bank of England, are forecasting a short, sharp […]
Celebrating Germany’s recession dodge? The data isn’t quite as solid as you think
Ardent Remainers had a rare bit of good news at the end of last week. The latest statistics for the German economy showed that, contrary to expectations, it had not fallen into recession in the July-September period. Economists have come to define a recession as a period when a country’s GDP falls for two quarters […]
Britain is more optimistic about Brexit than gloomy forecasts suggest
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is up to its usual tricks. Last week, it predicted a two-year recession in the UK in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Even in the main forecast, involving a mild Brexit, GDP was projected to grow by only 1.2 per cent this year and 1.4 per cent in 2020. […]
Why the economic picture tends to be rosier than initial estimates suggest
One of the surprises of last week was the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimate of economic growth in the second quarter of 2016, the period from April to the end of June. In the run up to Brexit, the economy expanded by 0.6 per cent on the first quarter of the year. This was […]
The coming explosion in natural debt is a serious risk to the economy
Martin Feldstein of Harvard is an economist who should always be taken seriously. Writing in 1997 about the forthcoming introduction of the euro, for example, he argued that “the adverse economic effects of a single currency on unemployment would outweigh any potential gains from trade flows”. He went on to predict that the euro was […]
Is Britain on the edge of recession? History is an unreliable guide
Concerns are growing about a marked slowdown in the UK economy. The Lloyds Bank purchasing managers’ index, for example, fell to 52.1 in April, its lowest point since 2013. The initial estimate for GDP, total output, in the first quarter of this year shows an increase of just 0.4 per cent on the final quarter of 2015. […]
China is drowning in private sector debt: there’s no telling how this one will end
The eyes of the financial and economics worlds are now fixed on China, with focus predominantly on Chinese stock markets and the country’s GDP figures. A fascinating perspective was provided last week in the leafy borough of Kingston upon Thames. The university has recruited the Australian Steve Keen as head of its economics department, and it […]
Capitalism is stable and resilient
The financial crisis did succeed in creating one dynamic new industry. Since the late 2000s, there has been a massive upsurge in op-ed pieces, books and even artistic performances offering a critique of capitalism. A founder member of the Monty Python team, Terry Jones, is the latest to get in on the act with his […]
