Paul Ormerod: why are so few economists Brexiteers?
Leading Economist Paul Ormerod wrote an article for Prospect Magazine on 9th January asking why so few economists are Brexiteers… Groupthink culture in the economics profession led the Bank of England’s Chief Economist, Andy Haldane, to admit last week that economic forecasting is in crisis. You can read the full article here.
What Dirty Harry tells us about economic forecasters’ Michael Fish moment
Economic forecasters are in the dock. Last week, none other than the chief economist of the Bank of England, Andy Haldane, was confessing the crimes of the profession. The failure to predict the financial crisis was, Haldane said, economic forecasting’s “Michael Fish” moment. Thirty years ago, the BBC weatherman predicted that the UK would avoid […]
Farewell to the game theory master who helped prevent a nuclear apocalypse
Last year was a year of celebrity deaths. But perhaps the most significant of all received very little coverage. Just before Christmas, Thomas Schelling, Nobel Laureate in economics, died aged 95. In the early, tense years of the Cold War between America and the Soviet Union in the late 1940s and 1950s, Schelling’s ideas were […]
The death of cash, the rise of trade unions and other eclectic 2017 predictions
It’s certainly been an eventful year. But rather than dwell on the past, what sort of things can we expect in 2017? Here are a few eclectic predictions. Sweden may become the world’s first cashless economy. Notes and coins are already fast disappearing as a means of payment, and retailers are legally entitled to refuse to accept […]
Forget “post-truth”: A compelling vision drove Brexit and Trump triumphs
The buzz-phrase of the moment in political discussion is “post-truth”. Shell-shocked metropolitan liberals are astonished by both Brexit and Donald Trump’s success. How could their own rational analysis not find favour with the electorate? People in the internet age must be no longer capable of recognising the truth. Both the Brexiteers and Trump certainly created […]
Rampant corruption – not just the euro – has doomed Italy to stagnation
So farewell then, Matteo Renzi! The resignation of the Italian Prime Minister after his heavy defeat in Sunday’s referendum on constitutional reform has created turmoil. Fears have been resurrected about the stability of the Italian banking system, and even the possibility of Italy leaving the euro has been raised. But the problems of the Italian […]
The OBR shouldn’t be expected to forecast so far into the future
Economic forecasts have become a political hot potato. The Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) predictions, presented as part of the chancellor’s Autumn Statement, have put the government under pressure. The OBR has revised down its forecast for GDP growth over the next four years by 1.4 percentage points. The real controversy is that their gloomy […]
Forward guidance is just another delusion foisted on us by mainstream macro
The governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, was on good form last week when he appeared at the Treasury Committee of the House of Commons. Asked what “forward guidance” meant, he answered smoothly: “The thing about forward guidance is that it is guidance that is forward. Which is not to say it is meant to […]
Dump opinion polls for social media to understand people’s real preferences
So the pollsters got it wrong again. After the general election last year and then Brexit, it is perhaps not surprising. What is surprising is just how wrong they were. The real problem is the enormous confidence with which they pronounced that Clinton would win. The Princeton Election Consortium was probably top of the class, […]
From the NHS to Brexit, give people a choice and they’ll make a good one
A current headache for the government is the performance of the NHS, and whether it is running out of money. This was making the front pages until the judges’ decision on Brexit pushed it off. Successive governments have discovered that the finances of the health service are a potentially bottomless pit. A key policy issue […]
