Boris Johnson may be in political peril but his Covid-19 strategy was worth the risk
The last days have been of decisive importance in the life of this pandemic: the total number of Covid-19 cases in the country has started to fall, and is continuing to fall. Finally, we are well past the worst. Something to consider is that the figures we see in the headlines, no matter what data […]
Three Christmas presents for a Cabinet that lacks political grip
At this time of the year hapless members of the Cabinet, and even the Prime Minister himself, are entitled to some charity. We might usefully consider the gifts we would put under their trees on Christmas morning. Top of the list could well be both a Peloton and a deckchair. Sarah Healey, permanent secretary at […]
Precaution is a useful thing, but designing policy based on maybes is a dangerous road
It is is so familiar, the script almost writes itself. Health professionals start to call for more restrictive measures at the slightest whiff of bad news. The government initially dismisses the concerns. Gradually, ministers – many of them almost wholly innumerate – are beaten into submission by projections of what might happen. If we were […]
New winter Covid restrictions would make it official policy to pray for a better day
A trip to the Scottish Highlands is always refreshing. Despite the shortening days, the hills were in perfect late autumn condition. It clears your mind and helps you reflect on what’s not working. This time around, it was more interesting than usual: it illuminated the stark contradictions and hypocrisy of the current Covid regulations, administered […]
In the end, the Swedes really did have the last laugh with a relaxed Covid approach
They never give up. The finger waggers who know what is good for the rest of us; the epidemiologists trying to intimidate us with their seemingly terrifying but actually rather trivial models of applied mathematics. The vested interests in the NHS creating excuses for the inefficiencies inherent in the system. If we already have restrictive […]
Science has been overrun with politics – it’s time to take it back
At the onset of the Covid pandemic in February 2020, the pages of the Lancet, a very prestigious medical journal, carried a statement eulogising China and the efforts it had already made to deal with the virus. For the luminaries who signed the statement, no praise could be too high for the Chinese. They had […]
From Covid deaths to Usain Bolt: statistics are never black and white
Who is the greatest 100 metre male runner of all time? The answer seems obvious, even if you lack sporting common knowledge, it is only a quick Google search away. Usain Bolt’s time of 9.58 seconds is unchallenged. Both Tyson Gaye and Yohan Blake are quite away behind with records of 9.69. This year’s Olympic […]
Embracing uncertainty is the only path out of the pandemic
A few days ago, Sajid Javid made one of the most thoughtful and encouraging statements by a government minister during the whole Covid crisis. Early In July, he seemed to be falling under the control of the modellers. The number of daily infections, he stated confidently, would soon reach 100,000, bowing to the so-called experts. […]
To face mask or not to face mask? Covid etiquette is an experiment in human behaviour
To mask or not to mask? Along with scores of other things we never would have anticipated, whether or not to cover up our nose and mouth is the latest thorny issue in Covid etiquette. The answer from Boris Johnson is clear: in public spaces such as transport, bars, restaurants or other busy indoor places, […]
Boris Johnson has sown dangerous ambiguity over Covid rules with mixed messaging for Freedom Day
Sixty years ago, Daniel Ellsberg, as a graduate student at Harvard, wrote a now-seminal paper on behavioural economics. The conclusions of “Risk, ambiguity and the Savage axioms” pose a fundamental challenge to the conventional economic model of rational choice, as well as the Government’s current Covid strategy. Despite its seemingly esoteric nature, an experiment carried […]
