Keir Starmer still has time to shine as Labour leader

Since last summer, Starmers have been the stock to short.   In June, the Leader of the Opposition enjoyed a net approval rating of plus 31 per cent. The latest polls show this has fallen into negative territory.  But as with all stocks, past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. In terms of […]

Government scientists must be transparent about flawed Covid models

The strength of the economic recovery as Britain emerges from lockdown is a hotly contested subject among economists. Some believe there will be a massive surge in demand as consumers celebrate their freedom, others argue it will take time to claw back confidence.  Economic forecasts are subject to the same faults as any projections, as […]

The curious case of Boris Johnson’s popularity after a year of lockdowns

In 1993, economics Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman published a paper with the enigmatic title “When More Pain Is Preferred to Less”. He and his colleagues conducted two experiments with the same group of people.  In the first, the participants had to hold their hand in cold water for a specified time.   They had to keep […]

Calorie counting gimmicks and sugar taxes won’t solve obesity crisis

In the early days of the pandemic obesity was identified as a key factor behind hospitalisation rates and deaths from Covid.  The Prime Minister knew this personally, from his own brush with mortality last April. This is on top of the already well-established links between obesity and other life-threatening conditions such as Type 2 diabetes, […]

Budget 2021: The political consensus on low taxes could be completely wrong

In the run up to most Budgets there is almost always one key question shaping debate: should the screws be tightened or the floodgates opened? This time round, a near unanimous consensus has arisen. Taxes should not go up, for fear of jeopardising the recovery.  Even the Leader of the Labour Party has signed up to […]

Forecasting Unemployment in London

An early end to furlough could spell trouble for London residents. According to the UK Government’s latest announcement, the end is now in sight. With restrictions expected to be fully lifted by the 21st June, the economic recovery will be in full flow. Many people, including the Bank of England, are forecasting a short, sharp […]

Vaccine passports: a free market and plentiful pubs mean they won’t work in the UK

As the country emerges slowly from lockdown, the debate over so-called vaccine passports gathers pace. Yesterday, Matt Hancock confirmed Britain was looking into the proposition for international travel. Countries such as Greece and Spain have a strong incentive to develop a system with us. Each attracts large numbers of British tourists in a normal year. Whatever the […]