Niche Economic Consultancy

Archive for the GDP Category

The chancellor should heed Keynes – and keep public spending down

The chancellor should heed Keynes – and keep public spending down

Last week’s Spring Statement by chancellor Philip Hammond has led to predictable calls to “abandon austerity”. With massive hyperbole, Labour accused him of “astounding complacency” in the face of what they claimed to be the worst ever public funding crisis. The facts are rather different. Far from

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Let’s join the IFS in acknowledging our misplaced fetishisation of economic data

Let’s join the IFS in acknowledging our misplaced fetishisation of economic data

Tomorrow, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish its latest estimates on how much the UK economy grew between October and December 2017, compared to July to September. Last month, the ONS thought that there was an increase of 0.5 per cent. The economy cannot be

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It is the private sector, not the state, that has enabled America’s economic recovery

It is the private sector, not the state, that has enabled America’s economic recovery

The American economy continues to power ahead. The widely respected and independent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reckons that the actual level of GDP in the US in 2017 is finally back at the level of potential output. The potential level of GDP is the amount of output

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The OBR’s forecasts should be taken not just with a pinch of salt, but with the contents of an entire mine

The OBR’s forecasts should be taken not just with a pinch of salt, but with the contents of an entire mine

There has been a great deal of crowing in metropolitan liberal circles over the report of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), published with the Budget last week. The OBR revised downwards its projections for GDP growth for each of the next five years. Annual average growth

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There’s a difference between priceless and worthless, but economics can’t measure it

There’s a difference between priceless and worthless, but economics can’t measure it

The so-called “productivity puzzle” just does not go away. The October, employment figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) brings it into focus. The number of people in work rose to a new record high of 32.1m, with an increase of around one per cent

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Cautious corporates sitting on hoards of cash are to blame for our slow recovery

Cautious corporates sitting on hoards of cash are to blame for our slow recovery

The slow recovery since the financial crisis remains a dominant issue in both political and economic debate. The economy has definitely revived since 2009, the depth of the recession, in both Britain and America. The average annual growth in real GDP has been very similar, at 2.0

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Does the productivity gap actually exist?

Does the productivity gap actually exist?

Whoever wins the election tomorrow will have to grapple with what appears to be a fundamental economic problem. Estimated productivity growth in the UK is virtually at a standstill. The standard definition of productivity is the average output per employee across the economy as a whole, after

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Don’t believe the myths: Capitalism has performed well since the financial crisis

Don’t believe the myths: Capitalism has performed well since the financial crisis

Ten years ago, the financial crisis began to grip the Western economies.  During the course of 2007, GDP growth slowed markedly everywhere. By the end of 2008, output was in free fall. A key theme in economic commentary is the sluggishness of the subsequent recovery of the

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Government debt addiction means you can be sure of one thing: Stealth taxes will rise

Government debt addiction means you can be sure of one thing: Stealth taxes will rise

Elections create uncertainty. But we can be sure of one thing. Regardless of the result, during the course of the next Parliament, stealth taxes will rise. This week, we have a sharp rise in speeding fines. Even doing between 31 and 40mph in a 30mph zone can

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Britain’s debt dilemma: Not too high, not too low or the UK economy risks disaster

Britain’s debt dilemma: Not too high, not too low or the UK economy risks disaster

The Bank of England Financial Policy Committee (FPC) has signalled that it has become worried again about debt. Its specific focus is households.Consumer credit, for example, grew by 10 per cent during 2016, far faster than the economy as a whole. A lot of household debt is in

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