Archive for the Bridget Rosewell Category

‘Good Enough’ evidence?

'Good Enough' evidence?

We all want evidence based policy and decisions.  However, deciding what constitutes evidence and what standard of proof is required is another matter.  And of course this is especially challenging when we need to explore what will happen, rather than what has happened.  Will this policy work? 

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‘Re-inventing’ London: Planning for the Future

London is changing.  But then, it always is.  The theme of my new book, ‘Reinventing London’ is that change is the lifeblood of a great city.  Over the past thirty years it has replaced around 1 million jobs in manufacturing, largely around the edge of the city

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Statistical rigour and HS2

At the Treasury Select Committee, in relation to HS2, Professor Graham said that it was important that we get these numbers right and in a scientifically rigorous way.  Both he and Professor Overman attacked the work published by KPMG as not only insufficiently rigorous, but also on

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The Political Economy of Risk Taking – and how HS2 is Misunderstood

High Speed Rail has no shortage of enemies.  It is challenged for having rising costs, too few benefits and for being the plaything of vested interests, such as local authorities and rail companies.  These are often cheap shots, based on what sometimes appears to be a wilful

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Airports, Commercial Value and how to Split Hairs

In the not too distant past, major UK airports were public assets. In many parts of the world, they still are. But here, for some good and some not so good economic reasons, we privatised ours. So now we need to ask whether private investors want to own

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Macro-economic modelling and its uses

An International Macro Symposium conference this week hosted by the ESRC and the Oxford Martin School has brought home to me how little things have changed in some quarters.  There is still a belief that with some tweaks the old modelling frameworks can capture the elements that

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How bad is this recession?

A number of commentators have pointed out that this is the slowest recovery from recession in more than a hundred year.  Taking output measures this is correct.  But taking employment as the main measure of recession it is not. Both the 1980s and the 1990s saw much

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Transparency, Clarity and Understanding

The call for more transparency is a compelling one.  We should have more information, more easily available.  Stuff should not be hidden away.  I am generally a believer in all of this, and that people have greater ability to absorb and critique than they are given credit

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