Scotland’s fiscal fantasy and the impact of an OUT vote
A short visit to the Highlands last week was refreshing. The scenery is just as spectacular as ever, and the people just as welcoming. But elsewhere, the tectonic plates are shifting. Last week, a televised debate took place amongst the political leaders contesting the elections to the Scottish Parliament in May. It resembled a bidding […]
How technology is driving inequality
Inequality is one of the major political topics of our times. Rather like a Shakespearean tragedy, the current splits in the high command of the Conservative Party have many themes. But an important one, and the ostensible reason for Iain Duncan Smith’s resignation, is the treatment of the working poor, a concept which until fairly […]
Why we are much better off than the official statistics say
The oldest surviving map of Britain was created in Canterbury a thousand years ago. Our ancestors had a good idea of how to get around. The country is depicted in its familiar shape. Understanding of the world outside Western Europe remained sketchy for centuries. The phrase ‘here be dragons’ was allegedly used to conceal ignorance […]
The IMF is in trouble – and not just due to its poor forecasts
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has played a prominent role in world financial affairs in the post-Second World War period. In the 1950s and 1960s, its main purpose was to support the system of fixed exchange rates. Since then its activities have evolved to embrace developing economies and both banking and sovereign debt crises. The […]
A radical idea for reviving the North
The Head of OFSTED, Sir Michael Wilshaw, warned last week that secondary schools in Liverpool and Manchester were ‘going into reverse’. Too many pupils in Northern towns and cities are simply not prepared for the next phase of their education, training or employment. In Liverpool, for example, four out of every ten schools are judged […]
What game theory tells us about David Cameron’s EU deal
Game theory is the study of how rules and tactics affect outcomes, and it is pervasive in academic economics. The opening sentence of one of the economics courses at Cambridge pontificates: “Optimal decisions of economic agents depend on expectations of other agents’ actions”. Translated into English, this means that, for someone in a negotiating situation […]
Ticket prices, fairness and behavioural economics
Who wants to watch the Scousers play football? Certainly no Mancunian, and probably no self-respecting Londoner either. Yet demand for tickets at Anfield, the home of Liverpool FC, is high. Indeed, there is excess demand: more people want to watch the games than there is room for in the stadium. In keeping with the precepts […]
Why Julian Assange shows that only intelligent machines can be truly rational
Is Julian Assange rational? There are no prizes for guessing the responses of most City A.M. readers to this question. He faces questioning over allegations (which he denies) in Sweden, and he claims that America will try to extradite him and put him in prison for a very long time. Assange has chosen instead to […]
If it costs nothing, is it worth anything?
Most of us don’t love our banks. We have all experienced the unanswered letter, the seemingly interminable waits on hold before being put through to someone who gives the impression of auditioning for the infamous “computer says no” television sketch. Yet we are surprisingly loyal to our current accounts. Figures from Bacs suggest that around […]
Are the markets telling the truth?
The opening month of 2016 has been marked by sharp falls in asset prices, not just in financial markets but in commodities such as oil. The conventional wisdom is that the markets form a rational assessment of future prospects for the economy, and set prices accordingly. So if prices fall, we should be downgrading our […]
