If it costs nothing, is it worth anything?

Most of us don’t love our banks. We have all experienced the unanswered letter, the seemingly interminable waits on hold before being put through to someone who gives the impression of auditioning for the infamous “computer says no” television sketch. Yet we are surprisingly loyal to our current accounts. Figures from Bacs suggest that around 1m people a year switch their banks. It seems a lot, but that is less than 2 per cent of the total number of personal current accounts in the UK.

This puzzle currently preoccupies the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), which published its provisional findings on retail banking competition in the UK last October. One problem was that the lower the quality of the service which a bank provides, the higher its market share tends to be. The CMA used several standard survey-based market research measures to estimate quality, so perhaps these surveys do not measure quality well. Even so, the result was a paradox.

The regulators have tried hard over the years to promote switching. The standard economists’ response of giving people more information has been used. Then, in September 2013, the Current Account Switch Service (CASS) was introduced. The idea is great. It is free to use, and really does seem to make switching easier. Yet the FCA found last year that not only had just 41 per cent of consumers heard of it but, more tellingly, over 50 per cent thought that this smart new technology might make an error in switching their account.

In short, not enough consumers trust a system which looks fantastic in theory. Exactly the same problem is reported in an article in the latest American Economic Review, by Esther Duflo and colleagues at MIT. The context is completely different. The World Health Organization estimates that primitive indoor cooking causes 4.3m deaths a year, as many as malaria and tuberculosis combined. Duflo, a rapidly rising star, provides evidence, from a large-scale randomised trial in India, on the benefits of a common, improved cooking stove.

The idea had backing even more powerful than the CMA. In 2010, Hillary Clinton formed the Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves, calling for 100m homes to adopt them by 2020. In the laboratory, just like CASS, the scheme looked impressive. In tests, improved cooking stoves reduced indoor air pollution, improved health, and decreased greenhouse gas emissions. But as Duflo notes, Clinton’s policy initiative was launched despite “surprisingly little rigorous evidence on the stoves’ efficacy on health and fuel use in real-life settings”. In practice, the policy did not work because people either did not understand or did not trust the new stove.

From bank users in the UK to peasants cooking in their huts in India, the problem for policy-makers is the same: many people just do not trust new technology. Duflo proposes that people should pay to take part in an experiment, which they would then take more seriously. In the same way, perhaps CASS should have a price. It is the old story. If it costs nothing, maybe it is worth nothing.

Paul Ormerod

As published in CITY AM on Wednesday 3rd February

Image: Esther Duflo by Kris Krüg licensed under CC BY 2.0

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e: aobyrne@volterra.co.uk
t: +44 020 8878 6333

Alex O’Byrne, Associate at Volterra, is an experienced economic consultant specialising in economic, health and social impact, economic strategy, project appraisal and socio-economic planning matters.

Alex has led the socio-economic and health assessments of some of the most high profile developments across the UK, including Battersea Power Station, Olympia London, London Resort, MSG Sphere and Westfield. He has significant experience inputting to EIAs and s106 discussions as well as drafting economic statements, employment and skills strategies and affordable workspace strategies.

Alex is also experienced at economic appraisal for infrastructure. He was project manager of the economic appraisal for the City Centre to Mangere Light Rail in Auckland. He also led the economic and financial appraisals of the third tranche of the Transport Access Program for Transport for New South Wales, in which Alex developed and employed innovative methodological approaches to better capture benefits for individuals with reduced mobility.

He is interested in the limitations of current appraisal methodologies and ways of improving economic and health analysis to ensure it is accessible to as many people as possible. To this end, Alex recognises the importance of transparent and simple to understand analysis and ensuring all work is supported by a robust narrative.

Alex holds a BSc (Hons) in Economics from the University of Manchester and he was a member of the first cohort of the Mayor’s Infrastructure Young Professionals Panel.


Senior Partner

e: eevans@volterra.co.uk
t: +44 020 8878 6333

Ellie is a partner at Volterra, specialising in the economic impact of developments and proposals, and manages many of the company’s projects on economic impact, regeneration, transport and development.

With thirteen years experience at Volterra delivering high quality projects to clients across the public and private sector, Ellie has expertise in developing methods of estimating economic impact where complex issues exist with regards to deadweight, displacement and additionality.

Ellie has significant experience in estimating the economic impact across all types of property development including residential, leisure, office and mixed use schemes.

Project management of recent high profile schemes include the luxury hotel London Peninsula, Battersea Power Station and the Nova scheme at London Victoria. Ellie has also led studies across the country estimating the economic and regeneration impact of proposed transport investments, including studies on HS2 and Crossrail.

Ellie holds a degree in Mathematics and Economics from the University of Cambridge.