Archive for the Behavioural Modelling Category

Why can’t we confront climate change? Behavioural economics explains

Why can't we confront climate change? Behavioural economics explains

The devastating storms in America have kept the issue of climate change firmly in the public mind. But so far, it has proved very difficult for politicians to persuade electorates to change consumption patterns in ways which many scientists would like to see. More expensive air travel,

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Was Michael Gove right? Have we had enough of experts?

Was Michael Gove right? Have we had enough of experts?

Experts are finding it harder to be heard. But is that because of how they communicate? And how solid is their much-vaunted evidence base anyway? Using evidence to assess the outcomes of policies is a vital part of good governance. Whether it is examining how a Budget

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Forward guidance is just another delusion foisted on us by mainstream macro

Forward guidance is just another delusion foisted on us by mainstream macro

The governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, was on good form last week when he appeared at the Treasury Committee of the House of Commons. Asked what “forward guidance” meant, he answered smoothly: “The thing about forward guidance is that it is guidance that is forward. Which

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How Stalin’s right-hand man could help the UK in EU exit negotiations

How Stalin's right-hand man could help the UK in EU exit negotiations

The topic of behavioural economics is very fashionable. But many economists remain rather sniffy about it, arguing that it often does not really add to what the discipline already knows. But one of its most distinctive and strongest results from a policy perspective is its emphasis on

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‘Good Enough’ evidence?

'Good Enough' evidence?

We all want evidence based policy and decisions.  However, deciding what constitutes evidence and what standard of proof is required is another matter.  And of course this is especially challenging when we need to explore what will happen, rather than what has happened.  Will this policy work? 

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Don’t give in to Twitter mob: Social media is just an echo chamber

Don't give in to Twitter mob: Social media is just an echo chamber

Greater Manchester Police staged a simulated terror attack in the massive Trafford Park retail complex last week.  As with many real life atrocities, the carnage began with the cry “Allahu Akbar!”   Following a storm of protest on Twitter, the police felt forced to apologise.  Almost at the

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Surviving the pensions crisis means encouraging work

Surviving the pensions crisis means encouraging work

The Queen’s 90th birthday has quite rightly dominated the media over the past week.  Her Majesty continues to break all sorts of records, spending longer on the throne than Queen Victoria and being our oldest ever reigning monarch.  But longevity should no longer give cause for surprise. 

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from golf to GDP, why unlikely events confound forecasters

from golf to GDP, why unlikely events confound forecasters

Life imitates art, as the sporting world has shown this week. The Grand National was won by a horse which had never previously won a steeplechase. The US golf Masters was won by Danny Willett, who nearly did not take part at all because of the birth

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How technology is driving inequality

How technology is driving inequality

Inequality is one of the major political topics of our times. Rather like a Shakespearean tragedy, the current splits in the high command of the Conservative Party have many themes. But an important one, and the ostensible reason for Iain Duncan Smith’s resignation, is the treatment of

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Why we are much better off than the official statistics say

Why we are much better off than the official statistics say

The oldest surviving map of Britain was created in Canterbury a thousand years ago. Our ancestors had a good idea of how to get around. The country is depicted in its familiar shape. Understanding of the world outside Western Europe remained sketchy for centuries.  The phrase ‘here

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