All we are saying: give capitalism a chance

Is there a secret Leninist cell operating at a high level in the European Commission’s headquarters in Brussels?  One which is dedicated to the overthrow of the capitalist structures of the European Union?  The evidence from this past week is certainly consistent with this hypothesis.  The demand for an additional £1.7 billion payment from the UK is based on calculations backdated to 1995.  Revisions to the way in which GDP is constructed means that Britain is better off than was previously thought, so we have to pay more.  A pure gift to anti-EU political parties.

The saga does not end there.  If the UK’s success is to be punished, it is perhaps logical, in this twisted view of the world, to reward the failing French economy with a rebate.  But Germany, too, is due a repayment.  Incredibly, Cyprus and Greece, catastrophic basket cases, have to pay more.

The fundamental problem with the EU is that the basic virtues of a successful capitalist economy are being repressed more systematically across the board.  There is a strong consensus amongst economists, based on firm evidence, that the main determinant of long-term growth in developed economies is innovation.  The European Commission pays a great deal of lip service to this, but Europe in general still lags considerably behind America in terms of innovation. The concept covers a range of factors.  One is learning how to produce more of the same kind of output from a given set of inputs, which is an ongoing process throughout the economy.  Much more importantly, inventions create the possibility of developing entirely new kinds of output, whether goods or services.  Inventions are necessary for growth, but even more important is the ability of an economy to turn inventions from being ideas which enable the creation of new products, to the actual creation of the products themselves.

The massive companies created in the information and communications technology sector (ICT) in recent decades have almost all been American.  And to the list which includes Microsoft, Google and Facebook can now be added Alibaba, the new ICT giant from China.  An important article by Bart van Ark and colleagues in the top ranked Journal of Economic Perspectives in 2008 examined the widening productivity gap between Europe and the United States in the two decades immediately prior to the financial crash.  Their conclusion was unequivocal: “the European productivity slowdown is attributable to the slower emergence of the knowledge economy in Europe compared to the United States”.

This lack of dynamism shows itself in the shorter term inability of many European economies to recover from the crisis.  Of course, a key reason for this has been the macroeconomic and financial policies of the Commission and the European Central Bank.  But the EU has increasingly become an area in which it is much easier to make money by what economists call rent seeking than by innovation.  Exploiting a monopoly, lobbying the regulator, ticking some boxes, these are what pay.  Innovations are disruptive, but Europe needs to encourage them more than ever.

As published in City AM on Tuesday 28th October

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Alex O’Byrne, Associate at Volterra, is an experienced economic consultant specialising in economic, health and social impact, economic strategy, project appraisal and socio-economic planning matters.

Alex has led the socio-economic and health assessments of some of the most high profile developments across the UK, including Battersea Power Station, Olympia London, London Resort, MSG Sphere and Westfield. He has significant experience inputting to EIAs and s106 discussions as well as drafting economic statements, employment and skills strategies and affordable workspace strategies.

Alex is also experienced at economic appraisal for infrastructure. He was project manager of the economic appraisal for the City Centre to Mangere Light Rail in Auckland. He also led the economic and financial appraisals of the third tranche of the Transport Access Program for Transport for New South Wales, in which Alex developed and employed innovative methodological approaches to better capture benefits for individuals with reduced mobility.

He is interested in the limitations of current appraisal methodologies and ways of improving economic and health analysis to ensure it is accessible to as many people as possible. To this end, Alex recognises the importance of transparent and simple to understand analysis and ensuring all work is supported by a robust narrative.

Alex holds a BSc (Hons) in Economics from the University of Manchester and he was a member of the first cohort of the Mayor’s Infrastructure Young Professionals Panel.


Senior Partner

t: +44 020 8878 6333

Ellie is a partner at Volterra, specialising in the economic impact of developments and proposals, and manages many of the company’s projects on economic impact, regeneration, transport and development.

With thirteen years experience at Volterra delivering high quality projects to clients across the public and private sector, Ellie has expertise in developing methods of estimating economic impact where complex issues exist with regards to deadweight, displacement and additionality.

Ellie has significant experience in estimating the economic impact across all types of property development including residential, leisure, office and mixed use schemes.

Project management of recent high profile schemes include the luxury hotel London Peninsula, Battersea Power Station and the Nova scheme at London Victoria. Ellie has also led studies across the country estimating the economic and regeneration impact of proposed transport investments, including studies on HS2 and Crossrail.

Ellie holds a degree in Mathematics and Economics from the University of Cambridge.