Want people to get the Covid vaccine? Pay them
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The vaccines seem to be coming thick and fast. The task now is to ensure that enough people get them to keep the virus under control. The first issue is one of logistics. The track record of the UK’s health bureaucracy during the crisis has not been good. But the NHS does have experience of […]
It is science, not lockdowns, that will save the world
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The various new vaccines announced over the past two weeks give real hope of a return to normal life. Of course, many practical questions remain. How will these vaccines be delivered? Do they stop the transmission or simply the symptoms of the virus? Exactly how effective will they be outside a controlled trial environment? But […]
The public are not to blame for the second lockdown
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Justice secretary Robert Buckland last week blamed the public for England’s new lockdown. In particular, the fault was with people failing to self-isolate properly. Of course, in a purely technical sense Buckland is right. The virus spreads by contact with an infected person. If people do not self-isolate, Covid-19 will continue to percolate across the […]
Lockdown 2.0: A creative destruction revolution, or the death knell of innovation?
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So Boris Johnson has failed to follow his own government’s guidelines on cost-benefit appraisal. Study after study by economists show that the costs of lockdown far exceed the benefits. The NHS — the “envy of the world” — has conspicuously failed to develop sufficient capacity to deal with a second wave, despite having had months […]
Macro Matters: economics, people and the pandemic – is there a missing link?
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Volterra Partner, Paul Ormerod, recently took part in the Macro Matters weekly economics and political podcast from the ASI Research Institute, hosted by Paul Diggle and Stephanie Kelly. The podcast discussed human behaviour, Covid-19 and economists; listen to the podcast here.
Forget the polls endorsing lockdowns and look at how people actually behave
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Economics is at long last storming the bastions of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE). This citadel of epidemiologists and health professionals has for many months resisted the lessons which the so-called gloomy science can bring. In the context of Covid-19, economics is in fact a beacon of hope. This week, news broke of […]
The government must take back control of the Covid narrative
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The word “narrative” is usually seen as being a posh way of saying “story”. But the idea of narratives is one which is gaining traction in economics. Last year, for example, Nobel laureate Robert Shiller of Yale published a book entitled “Narrative Economics”. He argued that it is the perception of events and the stories […]
Heavy-handed Westminster diktats have eroded trust — now only localised Covid policy can restore it
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Last month, the official group of scientific advisers — SAGE — warned the government that only a quarter of those who need to self-isolate due to coronavirus symptoms were in fact doing so. This illustrates a concept which is of great practical importance: namely the conflict between individual and collective rationality. Consider Margaret Ferrier, an […]
Following the science? This government lacks a basic grasp of the scientific method
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Verification and validation. It is hard to imagine a more nerdy phrase. But it is, in essence, how science makes progress. It is what we have to do to check whether a scientific claim or theory is correct. And it has been seriously neglected during the Covid-19 crisis. Just over a century ago, for example, […]
And this week’s winner for the Stupid Scientist award is…
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Scepticism about the advice given by government scientists about Covid-19 is rising sharply. In areas like Bolton infections are high. Interviews with the locals reveal that so, too, is disbelief in the veracity of the statements made by members of SAGE, the government science advisory group. The scientists, rational beings themselves, may ascribe this to […]