Forward guidance is just another delusion foisted on us by mainstream macro
The governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, was on good form last week when he appeared at the Treasury Committee of the House of Commons. Asked what “forward guidance” meant, he answered smoothly: “The thing about forward guidance is that it is guidance that is forward. Which is not to say it is meant to […]
Statistical rigour and HS2
At the Treasury Select Committee, in relation to HS2, Professor Graham said that it was important that we get these numbers right and in a scientifically rigorous way. Both he and Professor Overman attacked the work published by KPMG as not only insufficiently rigorous, but also on the grounds that the results are too optimistic. […]
