Ricardian Equivalence and why Britain’s really in a recession
News that we have entered a technical recession will come as no surprise to anyone who has even a passing acquaintance with the British economy. But what is less well understood is how personal spending – or rather the lack of it – is contributing to low growth. Household incomes have been squeezed by rises in energy […]
A miniscule bit of growth last November is unlikely to save us from a recession this year
In November last year, the economy grew by 0.1 per cent, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) last week. The news, in the midst of many a miserable headline, was greeted with great excitement. Most City economists had predicted a fall by around 0.2 per cent. Cue animated performances on the TV news […]
Not all is doom and gloom: a recession is not the only possible scenario facing Britain
The prime minister and the Chancellor are struggling to “balance the books”. Around £50bn might be needed from a combination of cuts to spending plans and increases in taxation. This has led to a chorus of voices squealing about austerity creating a major economic recession. The argument goes back to Keynes, writing in the aftermath […]
Cautious corporates sitting on hoards of cash are to blame for our slow recovery
The slow recovery since the financial crisis remains a dominant issue in both political and economic debate. The economy has definitely revived since 2009, the depth of the recession, in both Britain and America. The average annual growth in real GDP has been very similar, at 2.0 and 2.1 per cent respectively. This is much […]
Don’t believe the myths: Capitalism has performed well since the financial crisis
Ten years ago, the financial crisis began to grip the Western economies. During the course of 2007, GDP growth slowed markedly everywhere. By the end of 2008, output was in free fall. A key theme in economic commentary is the sluggishness of the subsequent recovery of the developed economies. The picture is not quite as […]
The OBR shouldn’t be expected to forecast so far into the future
Economic forecasts have become a political hot potato. The Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) predictions, presented as part of the chancellor’s Autumn Statement, have put the government under pressure. The OBR has revised down its forecast for GDP growth over the next four years by 1.4 percentage points. The real controversy is that their gloomy […]
Look to Twitter for why Britain’s economy proved Project Fear wrong
The economic data on post-Brexit Britain is beginning to emerge. We discovered last month that employment in May to July grew by 174,000 compared to the previous three months. Last week, the Office for National Statistics published its estimate for the output of the service sector of the economy in July. This shows a 0.4 […]
Why austerity must be the order of the day for May’s chancellor
On the face of it, the Brexiteers have a bit of explaining to do. A week before the vote, Boris Johnson dismissed fears about the value of sterling, and accused the governor of the Bank of England of “talking the economy down”. Yet the economy does seem to have stalled, property funds have had to […]
The only way could be down for shares – and Brexit is just the catalyst
The Brexit vote creates many uncertainties, exciting or frightening depending on your predilection. One thing which is certain is that the Leave victory was delivered by the less-skilled sections of the electorate. It seems part of a more general stirring up of what we might think of as the dispossessed, those who feel left behind […]
The poor state of macro justifies scepticism with Brexit disaster forecasts
David Cameron has tried to frame the Brexit debate into one based on economics. Standing with him is the overwhelming consensus of economists themselves, from academics to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Their pronouncements are not having that much impact on the electorate if the polls are to be believed. There is justification for this […]
