How to unpick the apparent paradox of falling GDP and rising unemployment
GDP estimates are eagerly awaited in the City, and dominate the media headlines. Huge significance is attached to arithmetically trivial differences, whether between market expectations and the announced figure, or to subsequent revisions to the data. But GDP is not something which can be put in a set of scales, say, and measured accurately. The […]
USA vs China continued… The Influence of Networks (and the Olympics!)
The last three Olympics have seen a titanic battle between the US and China to head the medals table. If you combine the total of the last three Games, China stands just ahead, with 121 golds to the United States’s 116. But, the US topped the table in both 2004 and 2012, while China edges […]
Who will rule the 21st Century
This is a nice big question to ponder on the holiday beach or in the rented villa. A vast amount has already been written on the rise of China and whether the US will be replaced as the global superpower. And where exactly does Europe fit into all this? It is easy to make a […]
The Olympics, traffic in Central London and a bar in Santa Fe
We all know now about the empty roads and deserted shops, all quite contrary to the official announcements before the Games began. No doubt Transport for London used their massively complicated, expensive models of the transport network to deduce that the system would be under massive strain. But a deceptively simple game devised in the […]
Why Can’t Debt Just be Inflated Away?
The debt problems which the UK and Europe currently face are essentially ones of political economy. Basically, there is a lot of debt around and the simple question is: who is going to pay for it? All the economic theory in the world does not get around this fundamental issue. Traditionally, bondholders paid. The real […]
Ignore the IMF: Economic forecasts have a history of being unreliable
So the IMF has slashed its growth forecasts for the UK economy. This august body has just pronounced that Britain’s economy will come to a virtual standstill. Growth in 2012 will be just 0.2pc, compared with the IMF’s April forecast of 0.8pc growth. It cut its 2013 growth forecast by the same margin to 1.4pc […]
Royal Bank of Scotland fiasco shows the power of networks
The last week or so has seen complete mayhem in the Royal Bank of Scotland and its subsidiaries. A computer glitch has caused their payments systems to collapse. Monies have not been processed, 17 million customers have been unable to access their accounts and pay their bills. The impact for RBS has been catastrophic. So, […]
