What if the OBR too optimistic about growth?
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) published its economic and fiscal outlook document in conjunction with Jeremy Hunt’s budget statement on 6 March. Close scrutiny is paid to the short-term projections of growth in the economy made by the OBR. Tax receipts received by the government depend strongly on the rate of growth. And higher tax receipts give a […]
A look at Germany shows the UK’s growth problem is not a Brexit phenomenon
We English are notoriously bad at languages. But, like magpies, rather than bothering to make the effort, we steal words from others. That is why there is no word in our language for “Schadenfreude”, taking pleasure in the misfortunes of others. And all but the most diehard of Remainers, eyes firmly closed to the evidence, […]
In low income parts of the UK, boosting productivity is a question of competition
Productivity is a puzzle with many different layers. When it becomes a mainstay in political speeches, it is rarely for a good reason. Most of the recent focus is on why it has been so slow, in the overall economy, for the last decade or so. In the 1990s, productivity in G7 countries rose at […]
Not all is doom and gloom: a recession is not the only possible scenario facing Britain
The prime minister and the Chancellor are struggling to “balance the books”. Around £50bn might be needed from a combination of cuts to spending plans and increases in taxation. This has led to a chorus of voices squealing about austerity creating a major economic recession. The argument goes back to Keynes, writing in the aftermath […]
It’s time to go back to basics and go about fixing our deficit before more tax cuts
As inflation pushes prices further and further up, food has been getting more expensive for some time. But, as the cliche goes, there was never such a thing as a free lunch. This idea, well known among economists, means prosperity depends upon making the effort to raise productivity. These are concepts which Western electorates are […]
Our public services will keep falling apart as long as our economy continues to stagnate
History is full of examples of the right set of policies being introduced at the wrong time. A dramatic example is the case of Lavrenty Beria, who was the head of the Soviet secret police from the late 1930s. Immediately on Stalin’s death in March 1953 he took control of the government machine, only to […]
Low tax regimes only matter as much as their longevity
The tax breaks will, we were told, include 100 per cent relief from business rates on newly occupied business premises, and offsets for companies on spending on new plant and machinery in the first year. Relaxed planning regulations are also set to be part of the package. The race from local authorities to be included […]
As Rishi wades through the cost of living crisis, static growth is waiting in the wings
The short-term pressures on Rishi Sunak have continued to grow in tandem with the cost of energy and everyday essentials. Conservative MPs are increasingly panicked about being saddled with a label of being “high tax Tories”. But underlying all of this is a much more worrying phenomenon. Since the financial crisis of the late 2000s, […]
A service economy and shrinking workforce is the driving force of low economic growth
Extinction Rebellion’s fortnight of protests have only hardened existing beliefs and positions on both sides of the debate. But a book by Dietrich Vollrath of the University of Houston suggests that there may be much broader support for a low or even zero growth agenda than even XR might imagine. Vollrath does not address this […]
