Unemployment has stabilised but there will be economic pain ahead
There are high levels of business optimism. Survey after survey has told us this, from reports from Deloitte on large companies to evidence from the Federation of Small Businesses. Consumer savings are at an all-time high. People are itching to get out and spend the money they have been forced to accumulate. All in all, […]
Boris Johnson’s push for mass testing is set for failure before it even gets off the grounds
The campaign for regular, mass Covid testing has begun in earnest. From last Friday, everyone in England has been eligible to access lateral flow tests for free. The government would like people to test themselves twice a week. Under the slogan “Hands, Face, Space, Fresh Air”, the public is being urged to use the NHS […]
Keir Starmer still has time to shine as Labour leader
Since last summer, Starmers have been the stock to short. In June, the Leader of the Opposition enjoyed a net approval rating of plus 31 per cent. The latest polls show this has fallen into negative territory. But as with all stocks, past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. In terms of […]
Government scientists must be transparent about flawed Covid models
The strength of the economic recovery as Britain emerges from lockdown is a hotly contested subject among economists. Some believe there will be a massive surge in demand as consumers celebrate their freedom, others argue it will take time to claw back confidence. Economic forecasts are subject to the same faults as any projections, as […]
London Councils – Volterra produces unemployment forecasts for the London labour market
Volterra was recently commissioned by London Councils to undertake a detailed piece of research on unemployed London residents and their future employment prospects. Essentially, the research establishes the unemployment picture across London historically, before analysing the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic has had on unemployment in London. Several forecasting scenarios have also been laid out […]
The Great Frost of Covid-19 will pass – and Britain’s economy will heat up
The Great Frost of 1709 has been in the news this week, quite possibly for the first time since 1709 itself. According to Bank of England estimates, this was the last time that GDP fell by more in a single year than it did in the Covid year we have just had. The Office for […]
Burnley and Asda are unlikely warnings of debt-driven troubles
It has been a week of mixed messages. Not just on the release from lockdown, but on the economy. The Bank of England indicated that banks have been given six months to prepare for negative interest rates. The Monetary Policy Committee was quick to clarify that this did not mean that they would necessarily cut […]
Beware those who’d lock us down and throw away the key
Rather like dedicated Remainers, pro-lockdown enthusiasts never seem to give up. Their ardour will have been fuelled by leaks over the weekend of results from the epidemiological models. Apparently, even though quite soon all the over-70s will have been jabbed, lifting restrictions before the summer would lead to a massive third wave of the virus. […]
Hurrah for a vaccine — but was lockdown actually worth it?
The development of the vaccines has changed many things. It has even influenced the opinion of the Prince of Lockdown himself, health secretary Matt Hancock. Life, he pronounced at the weekend, would be back to normal by the spring and the “blasted regulations” abolished. But one thing has remained constant: the government’s continued refusal to […]
Economics lessons from history: Don’t expect a post-Covid boom
Just over 200 years ago, the finances of the British government looked even more parlous than they do today. Since the mid-1790s, the country had been engaged in a titanic struggle with Napoleon’s France. To pay for the conflict, the government had borrowed on a massive scale. The cumulative financial deficit — the difference between […]
