“Ricardo, Ricardo, that wonderful guy”: innovation, job losses and living standards

Here is your starter for ten. What do the Uber app and David Ricardo have in common? Ricardo, I hear you ask. Scarcely known outside academic economics, he ranks equal with Adam Smith and Keynes as the greatest ever British economist. His classic Principles of Political Economy was published in 1816. He made millions of pounds on the stock market, at a time when a million was a vast amount of money.

Ricardo addressed highly practical issues. A crucial one at the time was how to understand the stupendous changes which were taking place in Britain in the early decades of the Industrial Revolution. It was by no means clear to his contemporaries, for example, that these developments would be permanent.

One of his main concerns was whether the rapid technological innovations which were taking place were a Good Thing. How would the workers and their standard of living be affected? The question is highly relevant in the early 21st century. The Uber app threatens to deskill taxi driving and to make many cabbies redundant. Airbnb threatens the same to many hotels and their staffs. There was no easy answer, and even Ricardo struggled. In the first edition of his Principles, he concluded that innovation was good. In the second he changed his mind. In the third and final edition he decided that it all depended on the particular circumstances, though his reasoning was more subtle than the standard caricature of the modern economist saying ‘one the one hand, but on the other’.

When a technological innovation comes along, the immediate losers are easy to identify, whether they are the Luddites or taxi drivers. But with the benefit of 200 years of hindsight, we can now see that it is precisely the ability of the Western economies to innovate which has caused the enormous increase in living standards since Ricardo’s time. The standard of living of a country ultimately depends upon its ability and willingness to adopt new ways of producing goods and services. Eventually, everyone gains.

The question becomes just how disruptive a new technology is at any point in time. The technology of the internet has the potential to cause it on a massive scale. For example, global market research companies like Nielsen and GFK may soon come under threat. Advanced maths algorithms sweeping the web can not only gather socio-economic data on consumers much more cheaply than standard survey methods, but can obtain information on things like their psychological state, which existing techniques find hard to glean at any price. Whole swathes of professionals will find themselves deskilled.

In the long run, Britain will benefit. But as Keynes remarked, in the long-run we are all dead. Market-oriented economies are the great strength of the West, the basis for our prosperity. But markets take time to react to major shocks, and we may need to re-think the potential role of the state as a co-ordinating agency in what may be very turbulent times.

Paul Ormerod

As published in City AM on Wednesday 18th June

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e: aobyrne@volterra.co.uk
t: +44 020 8878 6333

Alex O’Byrne, Associate at Volterra, is an experienced economic consultant specialising in economic, health and social impact, economic strategy, project appraisal and socio-economic planning matters.

Alex has led the socio-economic and health assessments of some of the most high profile developments across the UK, including Battersea Power Station, Olympia London, London Resort, MSG Sphere and Westfield. He has significant experience inputting to EIAs and s106 discussions as well as drafting economic statements, employment and skills strategies and affordable workspace strategies.

Alex is also experienced at economic appraisal for infrastructure. He was project manager of the economic appraisal for the City Centre to Mangere Light Rail in Auckland. He also led the economic and financial appraisals of the third tranche of the Transport Access Program for Transport for New South Wales, in which Alex developed and employed innovative methodological approaches to better capture benefits for individuals with reduced mobility.

He is interested in the limitations of current appraisal methodologies and ways of improving economic and health analysis to ensure it is accessible to as many people as possible. To this end, Alex recognises the importance of transparent and simple to understand analysis and ensuring all work is supported by a robust narrative.

Alex holds a BSc (Hons) in Economics from the University of Manchester and he was a member of the first cohort of the Mayor’s Infrastructure Young Professionals Panel.


Senior Partner

e: eevans@volterra.co.uk
t: +44 020 8878 6333

Ellie is a partner at Volterra, specialising in the economic impact of developments and proposals, and manages many of the company’s projects on economic impact, regeneration, transport and development.

With thirteen years experience at Volterra delivering high quality projects to clients across the public and private sector, Ellie has expertise in developing methods of estimating economic impact where complex issues exist with regards to deadweight, displacement and additionality.

Ellie has significant experience in estimating the economic impact across all types of property development including residential, leisure, office and mixed use schemes.

Project management of recent high profile schemes include the luxury hotel London Peninsula, Battersea Power Station and the Nova scheme at London Victoria. Ellie has also led studies across the country estimating the economic and regeneration impact of proposed transport investments, including studies on HS2 and Crossrail.

Ellie holds a degree in Mathematics and Economics from the University of Cambridge.