London Councils – Volterra produces unemployment forecasts for the London labour market

Volterra was recently commissioned by London Councils to undertake a detailed piece of research on unemployed London residents and their future employment prospects. Essentially, the research establishes the unemployment picture across London historically, before analysing the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic has had on unemployment in London. Several forecasting scenarios have also been laid out for the short term (to April 2021) and medium term (to September 2022).

In the core scenario, unemployment in London is predicted to reach a peak of 9.4% (464,000 people) in December 2021. Our analysis reveals that these job losses are expected to be disproportionately felt amongst certain sub-groups (demographic-based and industry-based) of the London resident population. As a result, it is suggested that a tailored approach, which has local authorities at the forefront of decision making, is required to effectively fix the scarring impacts of COVID-19 on specific segments of the labour market.

Ellie Evans, one of our senior partners, said: “This work has highlighted the scale of the unemployment challenge we are likely to face here in London.

“The capital has persistently had more of its workers supported by furlough throughout the pandemic. There are boroughs and industries that are much more sensitive to international travel and tourism which may not recover as quickly as the rest of the economy.

“This underlines the need for bespoke, localised and flexible unemployment interventions aligned with residents’ requirements and businesses’ identified skills gaps. We also must not forget the entrenched inequalities facing certain subgroups of the population. Targeted support to improve access for these groups, break down barriers and widen opportunities must remain at the forefront of policy making.”

 

Main Report:

A Detailed Study of Unemployment in London (March 2021) (link: https://www.londoncouncils.gov.uk/our-key-themes/economic-development/employment-support/detailed-study-unemployment-london

Further reading:

London Councils press release (link: https://www.londoncouncils.gov.uk/press-release/19-march-2021/almost-%E2%80%98one-ten%E2%80%99-londoners-be-unemployed-december)

Evening Standard article (link: https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/council-chiefs-warn-unemployment-1-in-10-londoners-b925100.html)

Image: London skyline from David Illif via Wikimedia

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ALEX O’BYRNE

Associate

e: aobyrne@volterra.co.uk
t: +44 020 8878 6333

Alex O’Byrne, Associate at Volterra, is an experienced economic consultant specialising in economic, health and social impact, economic strategy, project appraisal and socio-economic planning matters.

Alex has led the socio-economic and health assessments of some of the most high profile developments across the UK, including Battersea Power Station, Olympia London, London Resort, MSG Sphere and Westfield. He has significant experience inputting to EIAs and s106 discussions as well as drafting economic statements, employment and skills strategies and affordable workspace strategies.

Alex is also experienced at economic appraisal for infrastructure. He was project manager of the economic appraisal for the City Centre to Mangere Light Rail in Auckland. He also led the economic and financial appraisals of the third tranche of the Transport Access Program for Transport for New South Wales, in which Alex developed and employed innovative methodological approaches to better capture benefits for individuals with reduced mobility.

He is interested in the limitations of current appraisal methodologies and ways of improving economic and health analysis to ensure it is accessible to as many people as possible. To this end, Alex recognises the importance of transparent and simple to understand analysis and ensuring all work is supported by a robust narrative.

Alex holds a BSc (Hons) in Economics from the University of Manchester and he was a member of the first cohort of the Mayor’s Infrastructure Young Professionals Panel.

ELLIE EVANS

Senior Partner

e: eevans@volterra.co.uk
t: +44 020 8878 6333

Ellie is a partner at Volterra, specialising in the economic impact of developments and proposals, and manages many of the company’s projects on economic impact, regeneration, transport and development.

With thirteen years experience at Volterra delivering high quality projects to clients across the public and private sector, Ellie has expertise in developing methods of estimating economic impact where complex issues exist with regards to deadweight, displacement and additionality.

Ellie has significant experience in estimating the economic impact across all types of property development including residential, leisure, office and mixed use schemes.

Project management of recent high profile schemes include the luxury hotel London Peninsula, Battersea Power Station and the Nova scheme at London Victoria. Ellie has also led studies across the country estimating the economic and regeneration impact of proposed transport investments, including studies on HS2 and Crossrail.

Ellie holds a degree in Mathematics and Economics from the University of Cambridge.