Forget exploitation, motorists choose to pay sky high fuel prices

Politicians have an irresistible urge to meddle. The latest example is the fanfare orchestrated just before Easter by Chris Grayling, the transport secretary.

He wrote to the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) to criticise the price of fuel at motorway service stations.

Grayling called for the UK’s three biggest operators – Moto, Welcome Break, and RoadChef – to be investigated. He was concerned that the prices charged at motorway forecourts might exploit the motorist.

In a flash of genius, Grayling pointed out that there is less choice and competition on motorways than on other roads.

There is no question that fuel prices are higher on the motorway, with a recent industry survey showing an average of 137.7p a litre, compared to a UK average of 120.1p.

But we have been here before.

Just five years ago, the CMA (then called the Office of Fair Trading), carried out a similar investigation.

Of course, action had to follow to justify the study, and the Office for Fair Trading duly called for increased information to be supplied to motorists. The government body claimed that drivers were unaware of the prices until they approached a service station, so special signs should let them know in advance.

But a trial run of the signs found that they made no difference at all to behaviour, and the plan was scrapped.

The idea that consumers have insufficient information to make a rational choice is a key theme in a great deal of regulatory activity.

It goes back to the work of Nobel Laureates, George Akerlof and Joe Stiglitz, in the 1970s on imperfect information. Until then, economic theory had been based on the assumption that consumers had full information about the attributes of the alternative choices available.

But Akerlof and Stiglitz introduced the related idea of “asymmetric information”. Economists love grandiose phrases, but this concept simply means that different agents may have different amounts of information. In the case of fuel prices, the forecourt operator knows the high prices which are charged, but motorists might not.

On this view, regulation is needed to increase information to consumers.

Ironically, economics – the discipline which studies free markets – has provided the intellectual rationale for much of the massive increase in regulatory activity which we have seen in recent decades.

With fuel prices, motorists clearly know that motorway fuel is more expensive. That is why the signs about this had no effect on their actions. They have full information.

Another fundamental concept in economics is preference. People reveal their preferences not by filling in surveys, but by their actions.

Motorists choose to start a long journey knowing they will need fuel en route. They choose to put fuel in at motorway services rather than divert off for cheaper fuel – information which is now readily available on satnavs.

Grayling got some cheap headlines, but basic economic theory shows that his call is unwarranted.

Paul Ormerod 

As published in City AM Wednesday 4th April 2018

Image: M25 service station by Arriva436 is licensed under CC by ShareAlike 3.0

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Alex O’Byrne, Associate at Volterra, is an experienced economic consultant specialising in economic, health and social impact, economic strategy, project appraisal and socio-economic planning matters.

Alex has led the socio-economic and health assessments of some of the most high profile developments across the UK, including Battersea Power Station, Olympia London, London Resort, MSG Sphere and Westfield. He has significant experience inputting to EIAs and s106 discussions as well as drafting economic statements, employment and skills strategies and affordable workspace strategies.

Alex is also experienced at economic appraisal for infrastructure. He was project manager of the economic appraisal for the City Centre to Mangere Light Rail in Auckland. He also led the economic and financial appraisals of the third tranche of the Transport Access Program for Transport for New South Wales, in which Alex developed and employed innovative methodological approaches to better capture benefits for individuals with reduced mobility.

He is interested in the limitations of current appraisal methodologies and ways of improving economic and health analysis to ensure it is accessible to as many people as possible. To this end, Alex recognises the importance of transparent and simple to understand analysis and ensuring all work is supported by a robust narrative.

Alex holds a BSc (Hons) in Economics from the University of Manchester and he was a member of the first cohort of the Mayor’s Infrastructure Young Professionals Panel.


Senior Partner

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Ellie is a partner at Volterra, specialising in the economic impact of developments and proposals, and manages many of the company’s projects on economic impact, regeneration, transport and development.

With thirteen years experience at Volterra delivering high quality projects to clients across the public and private sector, Ellie has expertise in developing methods of estimating economic impact where complex issues exist with regards to deadweight, displacement and additionality.

Ellie has significant experience in estimating the economic impact across all types of property development including residential, leisure, office and mixed use schemes.

Project management of recent high profile schemes include the luxury hotel London Peninsula, Battersea Power Station and the Nova scheme at London Victoria. Ellie has also led studies across the country estimating the economic and regeneration impact of proposed transport investments, including studies on HS2 and Crossrail.

Ellie holds a degree in Mathematics and Economics from the University of Cambridge.