Beware those who’d lock us down and throw away the key

Rather like dedicated Remainers, pro-lockdown enthusiasts never seem to give up.

Their ardour will have been fuelled by leaks over the weekend of results from the epidemiological models.

Apparently, even though quite soon all the over-70s will have been jabbed, lifting restrictions before the summer would lead to a massive third wave of the virus.  Daily death rates would once again soar over 1,000.

The SAGE modellers seem to have arrived at a totally different view to that of the Chief Executive of the NHS, Simon Stephens.  He told a House of Commons committee last week that Covid would soon become a much more treatable disease.  We can look forward, he said, to a “much more normal future” over the course of the next year.

Instead of wallowing in gloom, we might usefully look at Sweden.  The country has not just the prospect of a normal future but the actual reality of a normal past and present.  In Stockholm today, for example, you can walk up to the bar and order a beer.

In terms of economic outcomes, Sweden has performed better.  In 2020, output in the UK fell by over 10 per cent, and by just over 3 per cent in Sweden. The UK is running a public sector deficit of over 13 per cent of GDP, getting on for £400 billion. The comparable figure in Sweden is 4 per cent.

The Covid death rate in Sweden is rather high, at 1144 per million people.  But in the UK, it is 35 per cent higher, at 1550.

Currently, and adjusting both rates to the UK population size, the daily death rate in Sweden is around 100, and more than 1000 here.

Could a policy of very few restrictions have worked in the UK?

The virus spreads more easily in dense populations.

Much of Sweden is essentially completely uninhabited. In fact, slightly more Swedes live in urban areas than do Brits, 87 per cent compared to 83. So no difference there.

The Swedes are definitely less fat. Just under 20 per cent of them are clinically obese compared to 28 per cent of the UK population. Obesity is a key determinant of serious illness and death in Covid cases. But even adjusting for this, Swedish death rates are hardly likely to have exceeded those of the UK.

No politician would dare as to even hint at this. But could it be that the Swedes are, well, more sensible than we are?

They could be trusted to behave in ways which did not lead to the virus getting out of control.  The epidemiological models do not in general include the possibility of people adjusting behaviour in the face of a pandemic.

Overall, compared to the UK and many other Western European countries, Sweden, with virtually no lockdown restrictions, has had a good crisis.  Behavioural changes can make a massive and sustained difference to outcomes.

With only minor modifications of behaviour and armed with the new vaccines, it seems that Simon Stephens’ vision of a return to normality is close to being realised.

Paul Ormerod
As published in City AM Wednesday 3rd February 2021
Image: Socialising in Sweden by Wikimedia CC BY-SA 2.0

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ELLIE EVANS

Partner

e: eevans@volterra.co.uk
t: +44 020 8878 6333

Ellie is a partner at Volterra, specialising in the economic impact of developments and proposals, and manages many of the company’s projects on economic impact, regeneration, transport and development.

With thirteen years experience at Volterra delivering high quality projects to clients across the public and private sector, Ellie has expertise in developing methods of estimating economic impact where complex issues exist with regards to deadweight, displacement and additionality.

Ellie has significant experience in estimating the economic impact across all types of property development including residential, leisure, office and mixed use schemes.

Project management of recent high profile schemes include the luxury hotel London Peninsula, Battersea Power Station and the Nova scheme at London Victoria. Ellie has also led studies across the country estimating the economic and regeneration impact of proposed transport investments, including studies on HS2 and Crossrail.

Ellie holds a degree in Mathematics and Economics from the University of Cambridge.