Is this a pleb I see before me? Reality and perception in the markets
Andrew Mitchell, the government’s chief whip, remains in some difficulty after his exchange with the police at the gates of Downing Street. At the heart of the incident there is an objective reality. Either he used the word pleb, or he didn’t. Either the police were officious jobsworths, or they were the epitome of politeness. […]
We are all better off than we think
Apple’s iPhone5 has already smashed sales records. The first day on which consumers could make purchases over the web, more than 2 million online orders were placed. Little wonder that JP Morgan has estimated that sales of the iPhone5 could add as much as 0.5 per cent to American GDP. These numbers have attracted criticism. […]
Bridget talks airports on Radio 4
Bridget talks airports on Radio 4 Bridget recently featured on Radio 4’s You and Yours Programme giving her views on the feasibility of a Thames Estuary Airport. The special feature compares these recent plans with the proposal for a similar airport in Maplin Sands, Essex that were proposed and then pulled by the conservative government […]
Bridget Rosewell and Paul Ormerod on Complex Systems
The European Complex Systems Society conference is the major event in its area, with hundreds of researchers and scientists attending. This year, Bridget explained what complex systems science has to do in order to be of value to decision makers in the public and private sectors. The write up of her talk is here. Paul […]
A Tale of Two Recessions: Grounds for Optimism
The economic news at the moment is mixed, and the impact of the 2007-2009 financial crash is far from over. But looking back into the past may give us something to feel cheerful about. There have only been two global financial crises in the past century, that of the early 1930s and the most recent […]
Pharmaceuticals and Taxation: International Experience
Here is a summary of a presentation that Volterra associate Nick Bosanquet recently delivered in Sao Paulo at a conference sponsored by Interfarma – the Brazilian Research-based Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association. Brazil can look forward to a very positive development period between now and the next Olympics There is a shift in global economic growth with a key hub […]
How Big Is My Multiplier?
The debate rages about whether the Chancellor should implement a Plan B, or C or D or even Z. There seems to be a plethora of alternatives. But many of them share a key common theme. Namely, that an increase in public spending will boost output in the economy overall. This was one of the revolutionary new […]
Why teachers are just like bankers
The current highly emotional debate about GCSE grades is not very enlightening. But what has happened tells us a lot about how incentives matter, how they affect outcomes. And at the same time, it shows that unless a proper set of social norms is in place, incentives can have unanticipated, perverse effects. Bankers and teachers […]
How to unpick the apparent paradox of falling GDP and rising unemployment
GDP estimates are eagerly awaited in the City, and dominate the media headlines. Huge significance is attached to arithmetically trivial differences, whether between market expectations and the announced figure, or to subsequent revisions to the data. But GDP is not something which can be put in a set of scales, say, and measured accurately. The […]
USA vs China continued… The Influence of Networks (and the Olympics!)
The last three Olympics have seen a titanic battle between the US and China to head the medals table. If you combine the total of the last three Games, China stands just ahead, with 121 golds to the United States’s 116. But, the US topped the table in both 2004 and 2012, while China edges […]
