Why austerity must be the order of the day for May’s chancellor
On the face of it, the Brexiteers have a bit of explaining to do. A week before the vote, Boris Johnson dismissed fears about the value of sterling, and accused the governor of the Bank of England of “talking the economy down”. Yet the economy does seem to have stalled, property funds have had to […]
How Stalin’s right-hand man could help the UK in EU exit negotiations
The topic of behavioural economics is very fashionable. But many economists remain rather sniffy about it, arguing that it often does not really add to what the discipline already knows. But one of its most distinctive and strongest results from a policy perspective is its emphasis on what is called the “architecture of choice”. Economists […]
The only way could be down for shares – and Brexit is just the catalyst
The Brexit vote creates many uncertainties, exciting or frightening depending on your predilection. One thing which is certain is that the Leave victory was delivered by the less-skilled sections of the electorate. It seems part of a more general stirring up of what we might think of as the dispossessed, those who feel left behind […]
The EU referendum has shown just how irrational voters are
Some things never seem to change. In the mid-16th century, in the course of her short reign Queen Mary, a daughter of Henry VIII, tried to restore Catholicism. To this end, she arranged to marry King Philip of Spain, at a time when Spain dominated Europe. The Spanish ambassador in London sent back a gloomy […]
Old Europe’s poor innovation record is a harbinger of long-term stagnation
The economic debate around Brexit has been disappointing. Far too many of the points focus on the short-term. Would Brexit precipitate a sterling crisis? Well, if it did, at some point the currency would bounce back? Would it tip us into a recession? Maybe, but recessions come to an end. The key economic question, not […]
National Needs Assessment: when is evidence good enough?
Leading Economist Bridget Rosewell says that judgement will still need to play a big part in assessing our infrastructure needs of the future in her article National Needs Assessment: when is evidence good enough? Published recently on the Infrastructure Intelligence website, you can read the article HERE. Bridget Rosewell is a member of the National Infrastructure Commission, […]
Euro 2016: why the highest earning teams should go furthest
As excitement for the 2016 European Championships – which begin on Friday 10th June – reaches fever pitch, football supporters across the continent will be hoping that their nation can do them proud. The new format of the tournament means that more teams than ever will be taking part – including, for the first time, […]
The poor state of macro justifies scepticism with Brexit disaster forecasts
David Cameron has tried to frame the Brexit debate into one based on economics. Standing with him is the overwhelming consensus of economists themselves, from academics to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Their pronouncements are not having that much impact on the electorate if the polls are to be believed. There is justification for this […]
The coming explosion in natural debt is a serious risk to the economy
Martin Feldstein of Harvard is an economist who should always be taken seriously. Writing in 1997 about the forthcoming introduction of the euro, for example, he argued that “the adverse economic effects of a single currency on unemployment would outweigh any potential gains from trade flows”. He went on to predict that the euro was […]
Paul Ormerod talks EU referendum on IGTV- don’t miss it!
Volterra Partner and leading Economist Paul Ormerod was invited to IG with Survation to offer commentary on Brexit after Survation Poll results were shared live on IGTV on Wednesday 25th May. With just four weeks to the referendum Presenter Jeremy Naylor revealed Survation telephone poll results on which way the vote might go. Of those questioned: […]
