Publications Archive

Other Volterra Publications are listed below. If you would like to look at any of the titles in more detail, please contact the office specifying which publication(s) and we would be happy to email copies to you.


Understanding consumer behaviour with an agent based modelling framework, March 2010
Response to Capital Planning Buffers Consultation, January 2010
Understanding Risk on Buy-to-let, February 2010


The Current Crisis and the Culpability of Macroeconomic Theory, October 2009
Short Term House Price Forecasting, September 2009
Time to Take Stock – Housing Markets in the Middle East, July 2009
Volterra’s response to the Turner Review on Financial Regulation, June 2009
Ostrich Economics, May 2009


Global Recessions as a Cascade Phenomenon with Interacting Agents, December 2008
Tradition and Fashion in Consumer Choice – Bagging the Scottish Munros, November 2008
Physical Space and Long Tail Markets, October 2008
The Impact of Regulation in a Model of Evolving, Fitness-Maximising Agents, September 2008
What Drives Retail Credit Risk? Or Is Basel II Any Use?, September 2008
The 2008 Eurovision Voting Map of Europe, June 2008
Conditional Convergence – How Long is the Long Run?, April 2008
How Extreme is the Sustained Gap between LIBOR and Base Rate?, April 2008
Is the Concept of Wellbeing Useful for Policy-Making?, March 2008
Random Matrix Theory and the Evolution of Business Cycle Synchronisation, March 2008
Extreme Events in Commercial Property Returns, January 2008
Places, Prosperity and Competition, January 2008
Statistical Analysis of Hornets’ Final League Position, January 2008
Emergent Scale-free Social Networks in History – Burning and the Rise of English Protestantism, 2008


How Extreme is the Current Gap between Libor and Base Rate?, October 2007
Working Paper 23 – The Implications of Misleading Estimates of London’s Output, August 2007
Understanding Risk Drivers for Unsecured Retail Lending, June 2007
Long Range Inflation Prospects, April 2007
Urban Growth – Emergent Stylized Facts from Zero Cognition Agent Models, April 2007
Budget 2007 – The Pollyanna Economy and its Democratic Deficit, March 2007
Economic Prospects, March 2007
Uses and Abuses of Forecasting, March 2007
Working Paper 20 – Employment Projections for London by Sector and Borough, February 2007


Pre-Budget Report, December 2006
Understanding Choice in Financial Services, November 2006
Labour Market Flexibility in the US and the UK – Evidence at the Local Area Level, November 2006
Working Paper 18 – Borough Employment Projections to 2026, October 2006
Cascades of Failure and Extinction in Evolving Complex Systems, August 2006
Keynes, Hayek and Complexity, July 2006
The Spread and Containment of Behaviour across Social Networks, March 2006
Behavioural Economics and the Benefits of Choice, March 2006
Verification and Validation of Agent Based Models in the Social Sciences, 2006


Agent Based Modelling and Policy Design – The Case of Elective Surgery in the UK, September 2005
A New Era of Lower Capital Requirements?, May 2005
The Convergence of European Business Cycles (1980 – 2004), May 2005
Estimating the Uncertainty around Forecasts for GDP Growth and Inflation, February 2005


Extracting Information from Noisy Time Series Data, December 2004
Explaining Social and Economic Phenomena with Low or Zero Cognition Agents, September 2004
How Much Can Firms Know?, February 2004
The Medieval Inquisition – Scale-free Networks and the Suppression of Heresy, January 2004


Fiscal Treatment of Public Transport, November 2003
The Economic Geography of Great Britain, November 2003
Working Paper 2 – The Economic and Social Structure of London and the South East, February 2003
Spreading Success How London is Changing, January 2003


A Model of Agent Extinction – Combining Exogenous Shocks and Networks, November 2002
Power Law Distribution of the Frequency of Demises of U.S Firms, April 2002
External Shocks in a Model of Endogenous Agent Extinctions, March 2002
Emissions Targets – Modelling Incentives, February 2002
Patterns of Agent Extinction under External Shocks, February 2002
An Agent-Based Model of the Evolution of Market Structure and Competition, 2002


The Goodwin Model and the Periodicity of Unemployment and Factor Shares in the UK, December 2001
An Agent-Based Model of the Extinction Patterns of Capitalism’s Largest Firms, November 2001
Power Law Scaling for Interacting Units with Complex Internal Structure, November 2001
Extinction Patterns of Capitalism’s Largest Firms, October 2001
Stamp Duty on Share Trading – The Economic Impact, September 2001
The Knowledge of Price and the Price of Knowledge, June 2001
The Evolution of Market Structure and Competition, April 2001
Market Correlation and Market Volatility in US Blue Chip Stocks, March 2001
Social Networks and Access to Financial Services in the UK, March 2001
The Convergence of European Business Cycles (1978 – 2000), March 2001
Non-linear Modelling of Burglary and Violent Crime in the UK, February 2001


The Criminological and Economic Factors Influencing Crime Trends, December 2000
The Duration and Magnitude of Recessions in Capitalist Economies, November 2000
Localised Structure in the Temporal Evolution of Asset Prices, September 2000
Random Matrix Theory and the Failure of Macro-economic Forecasts, January 2000


Job Search, Unemployment and the Topology of Social Networks, November 1999
Local Property Risk Assessment, November 1999


The Evolution of Family Structures in a Social Context, October 1998
Social Interaction and the Dynamics of Crime, 1998

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