Archive for the Paul Ormerod Category

Are the markets telling the truth?

The opening month of 2016 has been marked by sharp falls in asset prices, not just in financial markets but in commodities such as oil.  The conventional wisdom is that the markets form a rational assessment of future prospects for the economy, and set prices accordingly.  So

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China is drowning in private sector debt: there’s no telling how this one will end

The eyes of the financial and economics worlds are now fixed on China, with focus predominantly on Chinese stock markets and the country’s GDP figures.  A fascinating perspective was provided last week in the leafy borough of Kingston upon Thames.  The university has recruited the Australian Steve Keen

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Science does not always make sense

The story of the week for many people was the new alcohol guidelines issued by the UK’s chief medical officers.  In 1995, the recommended weekly upper limit for men was set at 21 units, or around eight pints.  This has now been slashed to only 14 units.

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No more whingeing, please. The recovery is solid.

Last month saw some very positive economic news. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in over seven years.  The Bank of England reported on the major stress test of UK banks which it launched in March 2015.  It concluded that “the banking

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A Christmas competition with a difference…

… and the chance to win a bottle of champagne. For the prolonged holiday break, a quiz is appropriate. But one with a difference: not just questions, but comments to go with them. A prize of a bottle of champagne to the best answers – just email

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Christmas jerseys: a great intellectual challenge

What would you buy Jeremy Corbyn for Christmas? Printable answers only, please. But somehow, a Christmas jumper seems appropriate. It would match the 1980s-style shell suit he wore the other day. Perhaps one with a portrait of Stalin and the slogan ‘Teacher, Leader, Friend’, a phrase in

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Valuing the Future. Why Climate Change Agreement is Hard

The two week long Paris conference on climate change seems to drag on interminably.  There are obviously many reasons why such summits find it difficult to reach meaningful agreements.  But a fundamental one is that the electorates of the West are being asked to bear substantial costs

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Black Friday, Games and the Stock Market

Black Friday has come and gone.  The massive surge into the shops which was anticipated in much of the media failed to materialise.  Many retail outlets were quieter than a normal Friday.  In contrast, internet shopping went wild.  Amazon had its biggest ever day in the UK,

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It is not just the Euro. Southern Europe faces a major structural crisis

Major shocks to social and economic systems ruthlessly expose weaknesses which can be contained in more normal times.  When the price of oil quadrupled in 1973/74, the different levels of resilience in the labour markets of Western Europe were quickly revealed.  Inflation initially rose sharply everywhere.  By

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Could Ernie replace Andy? The Bank’s take on automation

The Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Andy Haldane, has been in the news with his predictions that up to 15 million jobs in the UK are at risk of being lost to automation. This is a huge number, around half the total number of people

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