And this week’s winner for the Stupid Scientist award is…

And this week's winner for the Stupid Scientist award is...

Scepticism about the advice given by government scientists about Covid-19 is rising sharply.

In areas like Bolton infections are high. Interviews with the locals reveal that so, too, is disbelief in the veracity of the statements made by members of SAGE, the government science advisory group.

The scientists, rational beings themselves, may ascribe this to the inability of the general population to process information.

Yet it is their own pronouncements which have fostered scepticism. Scepticism in turn brings reluctance to follow advice, even when it is good.

Which brings us to the winner of this week’s Stupid Scientist award. It is a close-run thing, but step forward Nicola Steedman, Scotland’s deputy chief medical officer.

Students at universities in the Glasgow region are effectively being held under house arrest in their halls of residence. According to this particular Nicola, it is for their own good.  The students are apparently at serious risk of dying from coronavirus.

If we turn to the data to see how many people under 30 have died from Covid in Scotland since the pandemic began, the number is in fact zero.

Given this, why should any credence be given to anything which Ms Steedman now says?  There have been zero deaths amongst student-age groups, yet she appears to believe that they are at serious risk of death.

Runners up for the award are the well-known duo of Chris Whitty, chief UK medical officer, and Patrick Vallance, chief scientist. They pronounced there could be 50,000 cases of Covid a day by mid-October. If cases doubled every week, they would reach this level.

This projection has attracted widespread criticism. New cases have indeed risen in countries like France, Italy and even Germany, but at a rate which is much slower than doubling every week.

The real issue is the dog that did not bark. Not so much what they actually say, but what they do not say.

In France and Spain, for example, during September the number of new daily cases exceeded the previous peak levels reached in April. In France, the daily total reached 16,000 last Friday, double the highest level of April.

Surely the cemeteries and crematoria should be full to bursting?

But they are not.

In France, new cases have exceeded the April maximum since the beginning of September.  At the end of the month, deaths are only one tenth of their April peak level.

In Spain, deaths reached a quarter of the April peak for a couple of days and are now falling sharply.

In Italy, daily deaths remain in very low single figures.

In the UK, too, deaths have risen but are very low compared to the total number of new cases.

The whole thrust of the messaging from pro-lockdown public sector scientists and bureaucrats is negative. Some may think this is because of the incentives they face. The bigger the threat the virus apparently presents, the more their importance and influence grows.

In my view, this is unduly cynical. But it is a cynicism which seems to be prevailing amongst the people of Bolton and other afflicted areas.

Paul Ormerod
As published in City AM Wednesday 30th September 2020
Image:  Chris Witty and Patrick Vallance by Number 10 via Flickr  CC BY-NC 2.0

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