Beware the dysfunctional consequences of imposing misguided incentive systems

Lehman Brothers Headquarters

Following the disclosure of salaries at the BBC, it has hardly seemed possible to open a newspaper or switch on the television without being bombarded by stories about pay. By pure coincidence, an academic paper entitled “Pay for Performance and Beyond” has just appeared. So what, you might ask? Except that it is one of […]

The poor state of macro justifies scepticism with Brexit disaster forecasts

David Cameron has tried to frame the Brexit debate into one based on economics.  Standing with him is the overwhelming consensus of economists themselves, from academics to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).  Their pronouncements are not having that much impact on the electorate if the polls are to be believed. There is justification for this […]

Integration won’t save the struggling Eurozone

Olivier Blanchard, the recently retired Head of Economics at the International Monetary Fund, has something of a track record with his predictions.  In 2013, he warned George Osborne that he was “playing with fire” with the UK’s recovery from the financial crisis.  Austerity had to be relaxed. We now know that we were actually nowhere […]

A Tale of Two Financial Crises: the 1930s and Now

As the seventh anniversary of the start of the economic crisis approaches, it is an appropriate moment to take stock. At the time, the recession was simply not recognised by conventional economic forecasts. These continued to foresee positive growth until the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the autumn of 2008. But the latest national accounts […]

Psychology, not hard line maths, tells us why Osborne’s strategy is working

So, International Monetary Fund, wrong again! At the end of last week, the IMF abandoned its criticism of the UK government’s economic strategy. Christine Lagarde, the IMF chief, said her organisation had ‘underestimated’ the strength of the recovery in Britain. The IMF now believes that the UK will be the fastest growing of any major […]

Two cheers for the global recovery, but doubts remain in the Euro zone

Worries are growing about some of the countries in the Euro zone slipping back into double dip recession. By convention, a recession is when national output (GDP) has fallen for two successive quarters. But this is far from being news. In a substantial number of economies, output is lower than it was not just two […]

Don’t say IMF, it’s IMF Squared!

In the boom decade of the 2000s, corporate rebranding and renaming was all the rage.  Some were successful.  Others are best forgotten, like PWC’s proposal to bestow the name of Monday on its consulting arm.  But as the world’s economic recovery gathers momentum, perhaps it is time to revive the practice. A prime candidate is […]